🌍 Overview — A Year of Turbulence and Transformation
The Top Risks for 2026 report makes clear that 2026 is a potential tipping point — not because of an outright superpower war, but due to profound shifts in political order, technology disruption, economic risks, and environmental pressures. Instead of a second Cold War, the central theme is a fracturing global system where old institutions struggle to adapt to new stresses, and risk is increasingly systemic across geopolitics, markets, society, and technology. eurasiagroup.net
Table Of Content
- 🌍 Overview — A Year of Turbulence and Transformation
- 1) U.S. Political Revolution — The Number One Global Risk
- 2) Overpowered — U.S.–China Technological and Economic Competition
- 3) The New Donroe Doctrine — U.S. Focus on Its Own Hemisphere
- 4) Europe Under Siege — Political Center Fragility
- 5) Russia’s Second Front — Hybrid Warfare and NATO Tensions
- 6) State Capitalism with American Characteristics
- 7) China’s Deflation Trap — Persistent Low Growth Pressures
- 8) AI Eats Its Users — Tech and Social Stability Risks
- 9) Zombie USMCA — North American Trade Ambiguity
- 10) The Water Weapon — Resource Geopolitics
- 🌐 Why These Risks Matter
1) U.S. Political Revolution — The Number One Global Risk
At the top of the list is the internal political turmoil in the United States, described as a U.S. political revolution. The report highlights how domestic polarization and efforts to consolidate power within U.S. institutions could destabilize American governance and, by extension, the global order that has relied on U.S. leadership since World War II. Rather than conventional interstate conflict, this risk stems from internal political conflict spilling into foreign policy uncertainty and global leadership vacuums. eurasiagroup.net
This risk matters because U.S. decisions on trade, defense commitments, global alliances, and economic policy influence markets, security frameworks, and diplomatic networks worldwide. Disruption in these domains could ripple out rapidly.
2) Overpowered — U.S.–China Technological and Economic Competition
The second major risk comes from the technology and economic competition between the U.S. and China, summarized as a battle between “electrons and molecules.” The core idea: China is investing heavily in digital and tech infrastructure, while the U.S. still relies more on traditional industrial and physical assets. As each nation prioritizes different models of growth and innovation, global markets, supply chains, and standards for emerging tech (especially AI and semiconductors) could fracture. eurasiagroup.net
This competition increases uncertainty for countries and companies trying to navigate which standards to adopt, where to invest, and how to manage geopolitical pressures without being caught in a binary choice between Beijing and Washington.
3) The New Donroe Doctrine — U.S. Focus on Its Own Hemisphere
In a coined term reminiscent of the historical Monroe Doctrine, the report describes how the U.S. may increasingly prioritize direct control over its own hemisphere, reducing its global policing role. This shift could leave gaps in traditional security architectures in Europe, Asia, and beyond, creating opportunities for rival powers and non-state actors to fill strategic voids. eurasiagroup.net
This recalibration of U.S. engagement could alter defense commitments, trade policies, and geopolitical stability in regions where U.S. influence has been a longstanding stabilizing factor.
4) Europe Under Siege — Political Center Fragility
Europe faces a crisis of governance, with political centers in major powers weakening simultaneously. This internal fragmentation limits Europe’s ability to act collectively on defense, economic challenges, or energy security. A weakened Europe also complicates support for Ukraine, economic resilience, and diplomatic coherence. eurasiagroup.net
The risk here isn’t just about individual elections but about systemic instability that makes coordinated crisis response more difficult.
5) Russia’s Second Front — Hybrid Warfare and NATO Tensions
While the war in Ukraine continues to define European security, the forecast highlights a shift to a broader, hybrid confrontation between Russia and NATO. This may include asymmetric tactics, cyber operations, proxy engagements, and economic warfare — increasing unpredictability without triggering a full-scale classical war. eurasiagroup.net
Hybrid conflict blurs traditional boundaries and makes escalation control far more complex for all parties involved.
6) State Capitalism with American Characteristics
This risk reflects the possibility of the most interventionist U.S. economic policy since the New Deal — where government increasingly picks winners and losers, influences markets, and embeds strategic support for certain sectors. While intended to boost competitiveness, such policies could distort global markets, trade relations, and investment flows. eurasiagroup.net
State capitalism traditionally is associated with China, but applying a version of it in the U.S. could reshape how global firms operate and how foreign states respond.
7) China’s Deflation Trap — Persistent Low Growth Pressures
China’s economy faces a prolonged deflationary environment, suppressing domestic demand and encouraging export-oriented policy with cheap goods flooding global markets. This could depress prices, strain exporters elsewhere, and complicate monetary policies in other economies. eurasiagroup.net
Deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy have far-reaching effects on global trade balances, investment flows, and currency stability.
8) AI Eats Its Users — Tech and Social Stability Risks
Artificial intelligence, while a driver of growth, also poses risks when platforms adopt extractive business models that undermine social stability — from misinformation ecosystems to labor displacement and governance challenges. Excessive hype and misaligned incentives may also lead to financial bubbles in tech markets. eurasiagroup.net
This captures how technology isn’t just disruptive—it can reshape social cohesion, economic structures, and political discourse with powerful side effects.
9) Zombie USMCA — North American Trade Ambiguity
The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), meant to formalize North American trade relations, is described as stuck in limbo — not fully implemented nor fully abandoned. This “zombie” state hinders investment and strategic planning, affecting competitiveness in a region that remains critical for global manufacturing and supply chains. eurasiagroup.net
Uncertainty in such foundational agreements complicates business decisions and cross-border economic integration.
10) The Water Weapon — Resource Geopolitics
Finally, water scarcity is increasingly weaponized in rivalries — used in political leverage, economic disputes, and regional tensions. As climate change intensifies droughts, crop stresses, and resource competition, water becomes both a strategic asset and a source of conflict. eurasiagroup.net
Water security intersects with food security, migration trends, territorial disputes, and climate resilience policy.
🌐 Why These Risks Matter
Together, these top risks reveal a world where political fragmentation, technological disruption, economic uncertainty, environmental stress, and geopolitical competition intersect. Rather than isolated challenges, they form interconnected pressures on governance, markets, and societies — requiring coordinated strategy, resilience planning, and international cooperation to manage and mitigate.
